If there is one thing that has been made clear by the war in Ukraine Is that the West’s fear of crossing the lines in its support for Kiev is being lost as time goes on. And that the lines drawn by Moscow are less red than they appear. Or at least that is what has been demonstrated by the sending of armaments, tanks and airplanes by the allies. A military aid that in the next few days could be joined by the Ukrainian Army’s use of U.S. long-range missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation; as reported by several U.S. media outlets on Sunday. A change in the stance of the outgoing Joe Biden arriving two months before Donald Trump’s inauguration. and when Russian attacks on Ukraine have intensified and North Korean troops are already supporting the Kremlin in recapturing Kursk territory.
“The media talks a lot about giving us permission for these actions, but attacks are not carried out with words. These things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves. I’m sure they will.“, the Ukrainian president himself has said, Volodymir Zelenskyon the information published by The Washington Post o The New York Times. Specifically, Kiev will be able to employ the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against targets on Russian territory, which was so far vetoed for fear of escalation.
The Kremlin has warned that this inevitably implies an increase in tensions and would mean a further step in the “direct involvement” of the US, which it has accused of adding “fuel to the fire”. If this permission is finally confirmed, it would be “a qualitatively new situation” in the current conflict, the Kremlin’s chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told the media, recalling that Putin had already warned that this would be a direct involvement of NATO, as only NATO countries can handle ATACMS.
“It is not yet known what it will translate into, but what is clear is that what was until now a taboo has been broken,” he tells 20minutos Salvador Sánchez Tapia, brigadier general of the Army and senior researcher at the Center for Global Affairs & Strategic Studies, who recognizes that although Trump’s arrival has something to do with the decision, he also seeks to break the situation in which Ukraine is now, that “is losing tactically and needs a revival, at least on a moral level.”.
This news comes after a week of massive attacks on electrical infrastructure Ukrainian, which this weekend has temporarily stopped working in part of the country. In addition, two major attacks with fatalities have taken place on Sunday night and Monday morning. In the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumi, at least 11 people have been killed, including six children, and 90 others have been injured. In addition, in the port city of Odessa a Russian attack has killed eight civilians and wounded about 40.
What implication will it have on the war?
The use of ATACMS is not new in this war. The Ukrainian Army already used them, but on its territory. These high-precision surface-to-surface missiles are manufactured by the U.S. company Lockheed Martin and can be launched from an M270 multiple launch platform or from the mobile HIMARS system with a range of about 300 kilometers.
Although Zelenski has been requesting this authorization for months, it was in November that he put on the table the possibility of attacking with ATACMS the North Korean soldiers who are in Russia to fight on the side of the Kremlin troops. “Biden’s decision has to be related to the deployment of North Korean troops. in the Russian region of Kursk controlled by Kiev”, explains Álvaro de Argüelles, an analyst at The World Order. Although these missiles could be used to bomb targets deep inside Russia, international media already point out that the authorization of this armament could be limited only to this region and not to the whole territory.
On how this will change the development of the war the experts consulted agree that it will not be decisive. “It is going to be able to do damage to Russia and at a given moment that can be used as a trump card, but for it to have a lethal effect on Russia they would have to have a large number of missiles,” explains the brigadier general. For his part, De Argüelles points out that the experience of the war in these years shows that none of the technological milestones and red lines imposed by Russia that have been crossed have meant a substantial change. “Of course they have influenced, but have not definitively determined the outcome of the conflict.. Ukraine’s main problem has to do with the lack of ammunition and fighters,” he says.
Trump’s arrival and his promises to end the war.
Another of Biden’s goals with this could be to strengthen Ukraine’s position with a view to a possible negotiation with Moscow once Trump comes to power. Ukrainians’ partial control of the Kursk region. was an important bargaining chip that Kiev had in hypothetical peace negotiations, and what Putin would be seeking with North Korean support is precisely to snatch that ace away from them before the president-elect arrives at the White House.
That is why the Ukrainian Army could use this temporary window to retain the territory it holds, since in recent weeks it had lost much of the occupied ground. And that, with the arrival of the North Korean troops it could continue to lose at a greater rate. “If Ukraine manages to keep part of Kursk without a doubt,” he said. increases its bargaining power and that territory becomes an asset. that can be exchanged,” says De Arguelles.
Despite this, Moscow can use this decision also to its advantage and maximize the pressure that it is necessary to negotiate already on its terms. At a time when it has gained ground in the Donbas and feels strong militarily. “Putin is going to use this to stoke fear of a Third World War. Something he has done before, but now it makes even more sense as the announcement comes at a time when there is open talk of a negotiated solution to the conflict,” the analyst says.