“Round” figures have the virtue of emphasizing the importance of the passage of time. In the case of the Ukrainian war, 1.000 is a number that is intermixed with decisions and gestures that have a purpose that is still difficult to interpret.
The Government of Bidentwo months before the end of his mandate, has authorized Ukraine to use the Artillery Systems ATACMS (tactical missiles with a range of 300 km) over Russian territory (Kursk oblast) in order to beat military units Russian and North Korean together with the facilities serving them. It should be understood, therefore, that it is authorized to beat deployments of means and units, logistic centers and assembly areas on Russian territory with U.S. materiel (Ukraine has more fire-producing elements with adequate range to attack Russia). Simultaneously, France and the United Kingdom have also authorized Kiev to use their cruise missiles SCALP/Storm Shadow with similar range to the ATACMS system. They had not done so until now because the use of these systems required U.S. collaboration for trajectory plotting (imagery intelligence).
The possible interpretations of these decisions range from warning to North Korea -in an exercise of limited escalation of military power- so that it does not increase its presence in Russia, to the strengthening of the position of North Korea in the region. negotiating Ukraine – not to lose more territory and to increase the cost in casualties to the Russian Army – in the face of expected U.S. attempts to press for an agreement of cease-fire over the current front lines.
On the night of last November 17, Russia carried out the biggest attack in recent times against the energy infrastructure Ukraine’s already severely depleted as a result of successive campaigns on it. The remaining capacity of the grid will not reach, according to the Ukrainian electricity company UkrenergoThe company is planning to maintain a stable power supply, anticipating power outages of up to 16 hours a day.
Ukraine has already 112 days on the Kursk territory occupying about 550 km2 and is resisting pressure from the Russian Army, which does not seem to have any particular urgency in recovering its sovereign territory. Where the Russian Army is turning its efforts is in the area of Donetsk in which it wants to rectify the front to give it a linear touch-up to avoid the current Ukrainian salient in the Pokrovsk area. The maneuvers of both sides reflect the change in perceptions brought about by the outcome of the elections in United States and the appointment of very relevant figures in its new government, such as the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense or the Head of National Security. In addition, a person such as Elon Musk starts a campaign in networks in which he slips the idea of a ceasefire and a peace agreement in which underlies the formula peace for territories.
Meanwhile the weather conditions at the front are worsening, with a consequent increase in suffering for the combatants. The population begins to worry about a winter that threatens to be the harshest since the beginning of the conflict. It is always the population that worst off in all the wars and the living conditions in Ukraine are going to become really dramatic. In addition to military assistance to sustain its independence, it is now more important than ever to alleviate as much as possible the harsh conditions that the population is living and that are going to get worse.
With no certainty as to what the 47th U.S. president’s position on the war will ultimately be. Ukraine, the European Union and the European pillar of the NATO would do well to draw a contingency plan to deal with the various scenarios that may arise. But, above all, they would do well to decide whether in the absence of the United States from a future scenario in the conflict, there is the willingness and the capacity to sustain Ukraine until it reaches conditions acceptable to it for a peace agreement.
This goes beyond words and good intentions. European governments will have to make a pedagogical effort with citizens to explain the costs of this effort and to explain the extent of their commitment, which must be accepted by a majority of the population.
After 1,000 days of war the situation on the front lines is practically unchanged to that of April 2022 except in the Kursk area. Hundreds of thousands of killed and wounded fruit of a war of invasion between two countries that were once brothers in the same state. A failure of diplomacy and of a system based on rules that some set, most accept and a few ignore.
There is much to learn from what we are experiencing, much to change and a pressing need to do so as soon as possible. The horizon I foresee is not going in that direction because those who can make it change are not willing to do so. For example, the United States has just announced that it is redesigning its nuclear strategy. increasing its arsenal to successfully confront a joint threat from China, Russia and North Korea and, at the same time, pledges with China not to leave it to the artificial intelligence nuclear arms control. I think we are going in the wrong direction and the only thing you can’t do when faced with a mistake is to hope that it will resolve itself.