I begin today with a deep sorrow and deaf anger. My heartfelt condolences go out to the families and relatives of those who lost their lives in the disaster of the cold drop which has mainly affected the Valencian Community, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia. Nothing can compensate for the loss of loved ones and the emptiness they leave behind. We are human beings and we consider ourselves safe and protected from the vicissitudes of everyday life until the indomitable force of nature shows us to be weak, vulnerable and dispensable in the face of phenomena that seem apocalyptic to us. because we do not consider them as part of life. They are harbingers of death. In a way, like waronly that the latter is directly provoked by us and we are responsible for everything it causes.
This week that begins will bring another stormthis time defined in the social and political sphere and circumscribed to the United States. By virtue of that strange phenomenon known to us as hyperglobalizationis going to affect us all, regardless of the continent we live on. Never before has so much money been invested in a single project. U.S. presidential election campaign ever before.. Never have the positions been so opposed and the forecasts so evenly matched. They cross paths on a daily basis insults and terrible accusations coupled with a social polarization that is frightening because of the violent rejection of the “other” that is implicit in it.
In these elections, the social polarization is also completely renewed. House of Representatives (the equivalent of our Congress of Deputies), and one third of the Senate. Thus, not only is the president of the United States elected, but also decides what is to be done in the United States. easy or difficult It will be easy or difficult to move presidential initiatives forward, depending on the predominant color in both chambers.
It is shocking, to say the least, that a state phenomenon should have such an impact on the world as a whole. This imperfect multipolar model which is almost bipolar – makes the significance of the outcome of the U.S. elections what the Anglo-Saxons call a “game changer,” a disruptive element. And it is so because, depending on the winner, geopolitics will produce new alignmentsThe new geo-economic horizon in the short and medium term will be a new geo-economic horizon.
Thinking about the different current conflict scenarios, who wins Harris o Trump is assumed, although it may not appear so at first glance, continuity in foreign policy towards China and with increasing economic confrontation. Increased pressure, should Trump win, on the Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine and Iran in particular. In the case of Ukraine, the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is the most marked, not for nothing Trump has throughout the campaign touted his commitment to ending the conflict by way of compulsion without our knowing very well how he intends to do it. Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance has taken it upon himself to softening the message in relation to the NATO. Let no one be misled about Trump’s vision: the “freeloader” countries that do not pay for their defense should defend themselves.
Similarly, the pressure to European Union to align itself economically with the United States in one direction or the other with respect to the tariffs on China will grow, regardless of who governs, although if Trump does it the manners are likely to be more brusque and the discourse more aggressive. But here it is not convenient to forget the old slogan since Bush senior, “America must prevail”, America must prevaila concept that “means”: first and foremost, the United States of America and its interests. No regretsWe must be realistic and consistent: we are where we have decided to be.
A war note to that horizon with Trump as the winner. The likelihood that tension will grow in the Indo-Pacific will be greater with Trump, especially around Taiwan and to casus belli which would mean its declaration of independence. The combat actions of Israel will continue to have the same if not more backing from Washington and it is not out of the question that pressure on Iran be associated with direct actions to destroy or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program. in terms of obtaining nuclear capability for military use. And finally, with respect to the Ukraine conflict, no one is in a position to know how he is going to achieve what he has promised: to end the conflict in 24 hours. Beyond a campaign slogan, it conveys a firm determination to stop the conflict quickly, mediate in its resolution and establish the conditions for a lasting peace agreement. So be it.
The horizon with the president Kamala Harris Will be, probably, continuistdespite the fact that she claims that it is a new era with respect to the presidency of Biden. The main lines in foreign policy and defense will be maintained and the center of gravity of these will be -as with Trump- in the Indo-Pacific. The deal with the European Union will be more benevolent in appearancebut just as harmful to us in terms of loss of competitiveness. As much as it pains us to admit it, we are considered expendable in the major issues that will shape the future of the power structures and international relations in the second half of the 21st century.
Like European Union we are participating observers of a reality in which we hardly intervene except to nodding and aligning ourselves because we do not have strategic autonomy. Nor do we have a consolidated collective will and, therefore, we cannot achieve unity of effort. That is solely and exclusively our responsibility.
The lightness of what we are, our apparently accepted lightness, leads us to irrelevance first and then to our certain disappearance. There is little time and few opportunities left to straighten out a course that is leading us to disaster. It would be wise to change course or evacuate the ship.even if, as on the Titanic, the orchestra continues to play and nothing seems to be happening. It is the time for difficult and unpopular decisions.It is time for firm and committed statesmen, and to recover the nerve and drive that made us reach unknown levels of wellbeing and that we now seem to want to squander, simply because we believe that they are a right that we are entitled to demand. Without determination there is nothing but goodism and inconsistency.. The destiny of all depends on each one of us.