The United States has the CIA, the United Kingdom the MI5 and MI6, Israel the Mossad, Spain the CNI, and Russia the FSB (formerly KGB). Vladimir Putin, in fact, was part of it. And no, it’s not fiction; spies are not just in the movies and those threats can now be taken as another concern for the European Union. We have seen James Bond, or series like Homeland, The Blacklist, Fauda or Bodyguard; we have imagined people with identities other than their own, as heroes or villains. Well, in the real world the Union seems to have a flaw thereor at least that is how the Niinisto report detects it.
This document, commissioned by the European Commission from the former Finnish President with that surname, reflects an idea that mixes surprise with necessity: the European Union needs its own intelligence agency. In other words, there must be spies Made in Europe. Niinistö suggests strengthening the EU’s Single Intelligence Analysis Capability, which includes both the EU Intelligence and Situation Center and EU military intelligence within the EU Military Staff under the European External Action Service. This, he says, would not run counter to the work and cooperation between member states.but would complement their work.
Why this approach? Basically to try to to match in some way with Russia, China or the United States.. The report refers to facts, as the Finn recalls that many Russian and Chinese diplomats have been expelled from European capitals on accusations of espionage, “while Brussels, home to numerous institutions and embassies, has become a hub for covert activities“. The EU has to respond to this because we are in the era “of hybrid attacks”, especially from Russia and especially in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
“Our dependence on modern technologies makes us vulnerable to cyber-attacks, while our open societies and democratic societies are vulnerable to malign influence operations.for example in the form of deliberate manipulation of information,” the document states, which serves to to prepare the EU for future crisesnot only politically but also militarily. All this is encompassed in a plan to make the Union a strategic actor, and that includes a clear (and new) roadmap in terms of Intelligence.
It focuses on Russia and China, but also on “other malicious actors are actively engaged in hybrid operations that take advantage of such dependencies and vulnerabilities as a low-cost, high-reward method of achieving their political objectives: to separate EU member states and weaken us.“. Niinisto’s diagnosis seems obvious; the question is whether the EU is prepared to deal with it. Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), ranging from disinformation to intimidation, “is becoming increasingly sophisticated, difficult to recognize or attribute and is rapidly taking advantage of new technological opportunities.“, he recalls.
Those threats the report talks about have direct effects on people’s day-to-day lives. “Attacks against critical infrastructure, such as power grids, can lead to electricity losses with simultaneous effects in several member states.s, substantial economic damage and undermine public safety.” Moreover, there are concrete examples: hospitals whose computer systems are down due to cyber-attacks are unable to treat patients, have to postpone surgeries or other medical care, which can endanger human lives. Attacks on water infrastructures by cybernetic means or through physical sabotage “can cause mass social panic and have catastrophic consequences”.“.
“We have already witnessed damage to undersea gas pipelines and undersea communications cables under suspicious circumstances. In parallel, the deliberate jamming or spoofing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals affects aviation safety,” summarizes the document signed by Niinisto, on which Member States and EU institutions are already working. The EU “has to learn a lesson” (yet another one) from steps Russia is taking in Ukrainebut also look at what Moscow is doing on European territory.
“With hundreds of Russian intelligence agents operating under diplomatic cover having been expelled from EU member states, Russia appears to be increasingly turning to proxies to carry out its sabotage operations, targeting for example critical transport links, commercial properties, water management systems and military warehouses that are used to support Ukraine,” Niinisto adds. “The increase in sabotage operations and other hybrid operations. may begin to undermine citizens’ sense of security, as well as the economic attractiveness of the countries most aggressively targeted. Reckless tactics, including arson and the use of explosives, pose serious risks to public safety,” he concludes.
Brussels, a familiar terrain for spies
In that scenario worthy of film but tangible outside fiction, the European Commission has already sent out a signal to its employees, as reported in POLITICO. “Brussels is one of the largest espionage centers in the world.with hundreds of active intelligence agents targeting our institution”, explains a source to the aforementioned media, who also refers to an internal document sent by the Community Executive. The targets, according to Brussels, seem clear: “Diplomats, journalists, lobbyists, scientists or PhD students”, they say. Thus, the EU has to be prepared: there are spies, and they are not characters in a series.