Assassination attempts on Donald Trump, the president’s resignation Joe Bidencriminal convictions and a record number of donations: the 2024 U.S. presidential election has had a series of events that have impacted voter preferences.
Kamala Harris held some advantage over Trump after Biden withdrew and endorsed her as the Democratic nominee, but the gap between the two fades with each day that Election Day approaches.
Polls most widely followed by Americans show a dead heatthe candidates are very close in the latest polls of The New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College and CNN/SSRS, while Harris leads by only one point in the Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov polls.
Latest poll data Times show that competition is particularly tight in key states.: Arizona (Trump 49 percent-Harris 45), Georgia (Harris 48 percent-Trump 47), , North Carolina (Harris 48 percent-Trump 46), Nevada (Harris 49 percent-Trump 46), and Wisconsin (Harris 49 percent-Trump 47) and Pennsylvania and Michigan which have the presidential vote tied.
NEW FINAL New York Times/Siena College Battleground Polls: TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!!
Arizona: Trump 49% – Harris 45%; Gallego up by 5 Over Lake
Georgia: Harris 48% – Trump 47%
Michigan: Trump 47% – Harris 47%; Slotkin Leads Rogers 48-46%.
North Carolina: Harris 48% – Trump 46%;… pic.twitter.com/0R5Ee7ETU8
– SienaResearch (@SienaResearch). November 3, 2024
Trump ahead (48-46 percent) in CNBC poll among registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and leads 47 percent to 45 percent in a poll of Wall Street Journal among registered voters released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47 percent to 45 percent in a poll of the Journal.
On the last Sunday of the campaign, Harris began her journey at a black church in Detroitwhere he told parishioners that the nation was “ready to bend the arc of history toward justice,” invoking the words of Martin Luther King Jr. Trump, meanwhile, kicked off his at an outdoor rally at a Pennsylvania airportwhere he told supporters that he “should not have left” the White House after his defeat to President Biden in 2020.
Unpopular vice presidential candidates
The choice of a vice president is often driven more by political calculation than by his or her fitness for office, but the role of both candidates in this campaign has not been decisive.
JD Vance, a 40-year-old Ohio senator, bestselling author and Yale-educated venture capitalist, was introduced as Trump’s running mate in July. A series of gaffes at rallies.as well as unearthed comments about America being ruled by “childless cat ladies,” quickly made him a the least popular vice presidential hopeful in history.
His counterpart is the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz60. A relative unknown on the national political scene, the Democrat has emphasized his small-town Nebraska roots with an eye toward swaying undecided voters in the Midwest. While he is more popular than his counterpart, he has also emerged as a a divisive figure among the electorate.
The road to the White House is far from a simple one and from the outside it must be kept in mind that the outcome depends on the Electoral College votes not the popular vote. On five occasions, the winner of the popular vote has lost the election: Hillary Clinton in 2016, the last time.
Each state returns a share of the country’s 538 electors, distributed according to population. The magic number for the presidency is a majority of 270.
The outcome of this election hinges on a handful of key battlegrounds that could tip one way or the other. Trump and Harris now prepare for final day of campaigning. And, of course, both will be in Pennsylvaniathe place that both campaigns have always seen as the make-or-break state of 2024.