With the long view you can see how an opportunity for a ‘revival’ of Europe, but what is certain is that Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential and his return to the White House catch the European Union at a very delicate moment.. No one is talking about a shock, or a very hard blow, but it is an electric shock on the foundations of the bloc, but especially on the agenda of the next legislature and on priorities. The Union has to hurry up and stop talking only about strategic autonomy; it has to fill it with content. at a time of maximum uncertainty. Almost everything in the Union is being taken with a pincer and, moreover, Trump’s return is confirmed with a European Council summit this Thursday in Budapest where the leaders of the 27 will try to set their agenda vis-à-vis the United States.
What’s wrong with the EU? Everything. EU sources consulted by 20minutos appeal to “lessons learned” regarding 2016 and the Commission has already advanced work with a group of experts to prepare the bloc for the return of Trump that is now a reality. Of course, the Union remains mired in a deep economic crisis, while it resolves its gaps in industry and its shortcomings in defense, while it is seeing a significant rise of the radical right and has the most divided European Parliament in decades. In addition, the Berlin-Paris axis is going through its worst moment: Macron is worn out in France and the Scholz government is hanging by a thread. However, sources call for “getting away from chaos and drama and getting down to work”.
Pedro Soriano, an analyst specializing in American politics, explains that Trump’s second term will put more pressure on the EU than the first. “His authoritarian drift would be much stronger” and this would leave Europe “in a practically unprecedented situation.” because it has always relied “on American democracy with all its flaws to be on its side” since 1945. “That new stage will be very different because that basic principle will be greatly eroded or directly broken.” For example, Soriano concludes, “there is little doubt that that its first decision in foreign policy would be to leave Ukraine hanging and force it to sign a humiliating peace with Russia, forcing it to surrender 20% of its territory.”
Support for Ukraine is at stake, precisely. Donald Trump has repeated on several occasions that he could make the war “end in 24 hours” if he returns to the White House, given, he assured, his good feeling with Vladimir Putin. No one believes that maxim. The Republicans, in addition, have other items on the agenda such as tariffs (already given in the previous term of the tycoon) to tighten the trade war. Also to this is joined by a “sidereal” distance when it comes to issues such as the fight against climate change. Now, “nothing that we haven’t already seen”, they conclude from Brussels. The message coming out of the EU institutions is repetitive: the EU knows what it has to do because it has already had to deal with Trump, although the one now is not the same as the one eight years ago.
Volodimir Zelenski, for the moment, prefers to wait, and struck a conciliatory tone. “I value President Trump’s commitment to the peace through strength approach in international affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring a just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into practice together,” he summed up, adding a wish: “We hope that the United States will be strong under the decisive leadership of President Trump. We are confident that Ukraine will continue to receive strong bipartisan support.” Kiev looks forward to “mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation that will benefit both nations.”
We expect the United States to be strong under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We are confident that Ukraine will continue to receive strong bipartisan support
But the EU is feeling the cramp, with several open fronts and with France and Germany in a moment of weakness. that neither Macron nor Scholz want to be too noticeable. In France, the government is very weak, without a clear majority and with a president who has a good image abroad but a very bad image at the national level.. Macron is at a low ebb while his German counterpart sees AfD advancing, with the polls favoring the right and an executive unable to contain the risk of recession. and the economic crisis. Even so, Paris and Berlin are trying to send out a message of strength that is not credible because, in addition, their positions, for example with regard to China, are different. The EU’s engine is not running at a good pace.
However, it will be important to see what role it can take on Poland. Donald Tusk can be a hope for the Union: a conservative leader, firm in the face of populism and with a good image in Brussels. Leader of a key country for the aid to Ukraine and who will have the future Budget Commissioner; Warsaw has almost everything in its favor to be part of an axis in favor of European integration. that will help to make important advances in defense, an industrial push and a discourse capable of being transversal from a member state that also has a healthy economy and is part of the top-5 partners in terms of GDP.
A few weeks before the new European Commission takes action, Ursula von der Leyen has a clear message. “The EU and the US are more than just allies,” she began by saying in her statement, and focused on the concrete. “We are united by a true partnership between our peoples, uniting 800 million citizens. Let us therefore work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that continues to deliver results for them,” he sentenced. “Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment depend on dynamism and stability of our relationship,” he summarized at the same time, with a narrative also pushed by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel.
“The EU will pursue its course in line with the strategic agenda as a strong, united, competitive and sovereign partner, while defending the rules-based multilateral system,” the Belgian expounded, as did the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, who sees the EU “ready” to “cooperate” and to “keep the transatlantic link strong”.rooted in our shared values of freedom, human rights, democracy and open markets”. Again, the theory is on everyone’s mind… but the practice is lacking.
The Draghi report… from words to deeds
That action is, broadly speaking, to comply with a large part of the Draghi report on EU competitiveness. The new “whatever it takes” from the former president of the European Central Bank includes the most important message of all, even if it sounds generic: the EU has to face “radical changes” because if it does not do so it runs the risk of risk of “losing its raison d’être” in a fierce scenario, increasingly competitive with the United States and China.
Precisely in the face of Washington and Beijing the Union is late, and that is why Draghi warns that “a massive increase” in investment is needed to close the gap that exists with respect to the two main competitors in industrial matters. Right now the EU is far less competitive than it should be. “The only way to become more productive is for Europe to change radically.”The only way to become more productive is for Europe to change radically,” says the Italian guru in his report. The calculation he makes is that this investment has to amount to 800 billion euros per year.
The final analysis understands, on the other hand, that private investment will be necessary for this momentum, but this cannot be the strong pillar of the whole, but that the bet must be based on public investment and, above all, on a joint push in different sectors such as industry or defense.especially, it is understood, at a time when Germany – the EU’s driving force in this respect – is not going through its most buoyant years. In fact, the new European Commission is preparing towards that scenario, with a Commissioner for Defense, another focused on EU production capacity and more weight to the competitive and industrial perspective. Trump’s return, in that scenario, is both a cramp and a spur to move from words to deeds.