The countdown to know the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is already underway: the counting has already begun in the first states of the East Coast to decide the next president of the American nation: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. All polls point to one of the closest elections in history.The polls give a minimal distance between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and experts believe that it will be the smallest detail that will tip the balance and decide the next tenant of the White House.
More than ever, the key could be in the so-called ‘swing states‘The candidates are trying to visit these last days of the campaign: contrary to those regions where the advantage is clear for Democrats or Republicans, the key to the White House may lie in the so-called ‘swing states’..
Seven ‘swing states’ with 93 electoral votes.
Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.These states, which share 93 electoral delegatesare the so-called ‘swing states’: states without a clear voting trend and which may vary from one election to another.
Unlike other territories, these states are not Democratic or Republican fiefdoms, and so the candidacies of both parties focus their efforts on capturing the vote in these regions.knowing that they have played a key role in other elections and will certainly do so in this one.
The number of swing states is not fixed, as it can vary in each election: it depends, in large part, on how defined the voting expectations are in each region. In the case of the 2024 elections, these are the 7 closest states between Trump and Harris: in them, the average of the polls gives a difference of just one or two percentage points between the two candidates.
Harris starts with a slim lead with everything still to be decided with three weeks to go
This average of national and state polls, published and updated periodically by the The New York Timesthe fight between Democrats and Republicans is red hot: Harris wins by 1 percentage point in four of them (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin) while Trump does so by one point in Michigan and by two in Georgia and Arizona.a state that was decisive for Biden’s victory in 2020 and that would now change color.
As it is, the swing states will be key in deciding the next president of the United States: national polls give Kamala Harris a slim lead. of just one percentage point over Trump (49% to 48%). If the forecasts hold as they are now, Harris would win the White House with 277 electoral delegates to 261. Trump’s. However, changing one or two of these swing states would change the final outcome. The electoral system, known as winner-takes-allcould swing the election by a single vote.
The advantage is so slim that it falls within the margin of error, and in an environment as volatile as this election campaign, the accuracy of polls is very relative. In that sense, the change in color of any of the swing stateseven if it was only one, it would blow up the air. the narrow victory that the polls, yes, give Harris so far.