Germany holds early elections on February 23. Another political earthquake for the European Union at a time when the world is under pressure and the bloc is undergoing significant internal tensions.with doubts about the new Commission and a very divided Parliament.. Meanwhile, everything is falling in Berlin. The traffic-light coalition (Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals) has never been reliable since it came to power in 2022, and Olaf Scholz has not established himself as a firm leader either. What now?
Daniel Gilanalyst at The Political Room specializing in the European Union, explains to 20minutos “really from the outset this coalition was expected to have a rather complicated operation because it had to combine the demands for more investment in ecological transition, infrastructure, technology, which were proposed above all by the Greens but also by the SPD, with the fiscal prudence of the FDP liberals, their opposition to raising taxes and their opposition to going into debt,” he sums up, looking at the full picture. “At the beginning they had to manage the recovery from the pandemic, so these issues were relaxed a bit, which allowed the coalition, even with its tensions, to get off the ground.“he qualifies.
The final reason, thus, for the fall is that social democrats and liberals do not understand each other, roughly speaking. The Greens have remained in the background, even though they hold the economic vice-presidency in Robert Habeck and, for example, the Foreign Ministry with Annalena Baerbock at the helm. They have made much less noise than the other two legs of the agreement.
“Germany is lagging far behind”acknowledges Gil, who recalls Scholz’s plan to ‘divert’ investments to the ecological transition. “The Constitutional Court declared that this plan was unconstitutional, which left Germany with a 60 billion hole in its budget and no way to fill it.“. This was, says the analyst, “a self-imposed wound” from which the country has not yet asked to recover. It has not been able to balance the investments that reality demanded.
Germany is undergoing a profound quasi-identity crisis.. 2024 has been – is being – the year in which the Germanic country has hit recession, with an industry altered by global movements and in need of renewal. But the turmoil comes from further back: the Russian invasion of Ukraine forced the semaphore government to make reforms that seemed unimaginable, such as a historic investment in Defensethe reopening of the nuclear debate and the the severing of trade ties with Moscow as far as possible. Germany, in a sense, went back to square one without knowing quite how to move forward. To this must also be added the role of China, with whom Scholz wants to have a somewhat ‘friendlier’ policy despite strategic rivalry…. and Beijing’s long hands to alter the dynamics of Europe. In other words, nothing is clear for the Germany that wants (or wanted) the traffic light Executive.
It has never been a reliable government; it has been an executive marked precisely by paralysis.
“I have the feeling that it has never been a reliable government; it has been an executive marked precisely by paralysis. It is a coalition that never really acted as a coalition. At all times you saw three speeches, the Greens a very strong foreign policy discourse with the SPD trying to mediate and the FDP always promulgating that fiscal prudence,” the analyst maintains. In this scenario, Scholz looks set to go into the elections at his lowest ebb, and experts do not believe that the step of having broken up the Executive will benefit him.
And meanwhile, AfD continues to grow. In the polls it is already second force at the federal level, and will go into February on the back of a victory in the Thuringian regional elections and also after its best-ever result in the European elections. Alice Weidel is once again the candidate for the national government.a woman who claims to break all the molds for a far right that has not quite adapted to the new times… but it has not been necessary. The traditional conservatives do not want to govern with them, but they do not seem to care: AfD is clear that its time will come.
Scholz has not been able to cover up these doubts. because Angela Merkel’s shadow is still long despite the passage of time.. And with all that, Germany is likely to return to the ‘Merkel era’ in a certain way. How? With a grand coalition after an election for which the CDU leads the polls by a large margin. Moreover, its current leader, Friedrich Merz, has completely closed the door to a collaboration with the radical right.
“A grand coalition is most likely. The fundamental question is whether a grand coalition will do, depending on the parliamentary arithmetic or a third partner is needed,” says Gil, placing the Greens or the Liberals in the formula, but with caution: “In that case the scenario becomes quite complicated and we could end up in a situation of instability and the achievement of a three-way coalition in which again conflicting interests have to be united. And we have already seen that the German political system has not been able to unite these interests.” Olaf Scholz and his followers have failed this test, and have also cast doubt on whether those who come after them will be able to do so.
All in all, the engine of the European Union is very touched and after Trump, the whole of Europe is looking towards Berlin. This is where the old continent is now playing its cards right now. Europe wants to boost itself, but for that it needs Germany (and France). In Brussels, there is confidence that the February elections will be a success. are just a stop on the shop floor for the country, because the stakes are high.. It is not meant to be said too loudly, but in the community spheres a phrase is repeated that is now gaining in value: “If Germany falls, we are all behind”.