With just a few days to go before the 2024 elections U.S. electionsall analyses and polls point in one direction only: it will be a extremely close elections in which the details will define who will be the next U.S. president: whether the vice-presidential Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.
The experts do not remember such an evenly matched campaign, especially in the swing statesthe key swing states that can tip the scales for Democrats or Republicans. Also the third parties could play a key role in these elections, judging by the tightness of the polls 20 days before the opening of the polls.
Trump would add more support with the states of Wisconsin and Nevada still to be defined, in a technical tie.
According to the average of electoral polls that is periodically updated by the The New York Times, Kamala Harris leads Trump by just one percentage point of the national vote: a few hours before the election, the Democratic candidate would obtain 49% of the vote, while the former Republican president would obtain 48% of the national vote.
However, the U.S. electoral system means that the winner of the popular vote does not necessarily win the White House.It depends on the number of states and, specifically, on the number of electoral delegates they win. In that sense, and taking into account the states in which the candidates have “secured” (i.e., where they have an advantage, however slight, over their opponent), the race is 268 to 251 in favor of Donald Trump.. Recall that the majority needed to be proclaimed president in the Electoral College is at 270 electoral votes.
All indications are that the state of Pennsylvania will be key on election night: in that state there is a technical tie, and it could give the presidency to one candidate or the other. Its 19 electoral votes would either give the presidency by the slimmest of margins to Harris or certify Trump’s return to the White House.
However, nothing is ever that simple in US politics, least of all in these elections: the results are so close that they fall within the margin of error. of any survey. As we have said before: North Carolina, Nevada y Georgia fall on the Republican side by less than one percentage point, and likewise do so for Democrats Michigan y Wisconsin. Any change in these states could change everything and tip the balance to the opposite side: remember that the winner-takes-all rule makes one vote decide the votes of an entire state.
Trump has managed to come back, on the paper of the polls, from a disadvantage that seemed impossible when Democratic voting intention skyrocketed after Harris’ candidacy. Now, it will be the ‘swing states’ that will decide the fate of an election that, it seems, will be decided by the minimum and at the last moment.
