No, the NATO is not going to disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House.. We have to start there. But it may undergo important changes, as long as the former president of the United States and Republican candidate for November 5 does not want half measures. While with Kamala Harris the status quo would be maintained, with the roadmap already set by Joe Biden, Trump doesn’t want the US to become the ‘daddy’ of the rest of the allies. Who has assured that he could end the Russian invasion of Ukraine “in 24 hours”, also has a series of demands for the others.
The reality is that Donald Trump has cared about Defense, even since before Putin pounced on Kiev. For example, during his tenure he increased the military budget to twice what the Pentagon requested of him. In 2019, they had asked him for a budget increase of 2.3%. But the U.S. government then went for a 4.7% increase. This meant an increase in military spending of $ 34 billion (30 billion euros), to $ 750 billion (667 billion euros); data of a real power that now claims, in the mouth of the tycoon, the same effort to others if he returns to power.
It is clear that NATO has been strengthened after the war in Ukraine, and with the Rutte era just started it seems that it will enter a new era of demand, especially if the message coming out of the United States is that of Donald Trump. Right now the benchmark is that the Allies have to spend 2% of GDP on Defense. That’s the ceiling. Well, Trump is proposing, if he becomes president again, to put that target at 3%. and even get closer to 4% if possible.
And it won’t be an easy task, though for some partners it’s already part of the way there. According to Alliance estimates, 23 states will exceed or reach the 2% spending threshold by 2024, Spain, which will remain at around 1.29%, will not, still far from the target and of course having Donald Trump’s potential new claim as an impossibility. If everything goes as the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has marked, Spain would reach that 2% in the year 2029.
The war in Ukraine has caused some Member States historically reluctant to increase spending to accelerate in this sector. These include countries such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of which are close to Russia. In the case of Poland, the increase has been the most significant and it is already the country with the highest defense spending as a proportion of its GDP in the whole of NATO, with 4.12%. It is followed by Estonia with 3.43% and the United States with 3.38%. Latvia (3.15%) and Greece (3.08%) are in fourth and fifth place, respectively.
Kamala Harris also seems that she will be demanding in this regard, but Trump will put much more pressure on the rest of the allies, especially in terms of discourse. A few months ago, in fact, he assured that he would not give protection to an ally that does not reach 2% investment in Defense. He gave a seemingly real example: “Moreover, I told him that I would encourage Russia to do whatever it wants. It pays here.” These words unnerved the Alliance. “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our entire security, including that of the United States, and puts U.S. and European soldiers at greater risk,” warned then-Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“NATO remains ready and able to defend all allies.”The Norwegian leader reacted at the time, in a line shared by his successor, Mark Rutte. Trump’s mentality is different, and in the most extreme case he could consider the United States’ exit from an organization that he now leads de facto. However, such an exit would not be easy: last year the U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan bill which requires any president to have two-thirds of the House to leave the Alliance.which, moreover, no country has done so far. In fact, the trend is the opposite, as Finland joined a few months ago and Sweden is on the same path.
NATO is actually in a similar situation to the EU if Trump returns to the White House. Donald Trump’s message is a “get ready” for the Atlantic Alliance. During his term in office he was far from being a supporter of the organization, and went so far as to threaten to leave it. The context was less demanding, much less; that is why any departure in tone now can set off alarm bells, even more so as the elections approach. Thus, NATO knows that it has to build on its own momentum. so that even a US in Trump’s hands won’t ostracize it back into ostracism. Right now it can’t afford it.